When will the UK coronavirus pandemic peak? – The Sun

SINCE the UK Government and medical professionals put the nation into the "delay" phase of the fight against coronavirus the country has gone into lockdown.

As a result of this action experts have become a lot vaguer about when the coronavirus curve will peak, but current estimates is that it will be around Easter to late April if Brits follow guidelines to stay in.

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When will coronavirus peak?

Boris Johnson put the UK on lockdown on March 23, 2020, with restrictions expected to last at least six months before everything goes back to normal.

This involved closing all but essential businesses, banning group gatherings and Brits staying in their homes with the exception of getting food, medical supplies or for work to stop the coronavirus outbreak.

Professor Chris Whitty, England's Chief Medical Officer, said on March 12, prior to the lockdown, that he expected the UK to reach the peak of the pandemic in about 10 to 14 weeks.

That would have meant the number of infections would not peak before the Easter break, but would hit the UK hardest in the May half-term holidays.

However, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on April 3 that the peak with hit ON Easter Sunday, with estimations suggesting 1,000 deaths a day.

When asked whether it would peak on April 12, he told Sky News: "I’m not going to steer you away from that.

"That is one perfectly possible outcome."

Mr Hancock added that with social distancing rules set to be reviewed straight after this date, it is unlikely they will be reduced.

The Health Sec said: "The PM set out when we announced the social distancing restrictions we would review them after three weeks, think that takes us to the other side of Easter.
“We will make an announcement then – I wouldn’t want to preempt that.

“Whatever decision we take will be led by the scientific advice, in particular what do we need to do is make sure we are continuing to prevent the NHS from coming under too much pressure, and saving lives.”

Brits are shaming their neighbours for ignoring strict Government rules by phoning cops.

Cops have said the 101 line has become inundated after officers were given special powers to impose Boris Johnson’s string of drastic measures.

Anyone who flouts the new crackdown will face fines of up to £1,000 or even arrest.

On March 16, Chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance warned the UK was "on the cusp of a major growth" in cases, with London ahead of the rest of the UK.

He said the measures introduced by the PM are designed to try and "dampen the curve" to delay the peak in cases and reduce death rates.

 

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Why is the peak expected to hit over Easter?

Dr Jenny Harries, Deputy Chief Medical Officer for England, said the social distancing and lockdown measures that have been put in place by the Government are designed to "move the peak" and "flatten the curve".

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said that the peak of the crisis is "not a fixed point, a date in the calendar," but "it is something that all of us can affect by our actions."

The current plan is to blunt any dramatic spike in the number of cases through lockdown measures, which were effective in South Korea and are starting to have an effect in Europe, reducing potential cases by eliminating the chance for the virus to spread.

The Government and Public Health England showed there would be a slow growth of new coronavirus cases every day, with cases expected to spike dramatically, as we are seeing in Italy at the moment, and saw in China over the last few months.

This growth will, however, depend on the impact of social distancing measures, which we are only just starting to be able to gather data on now after the first week or so.

Dr Harries has said that this "peak will be pushed forward" if people follow the Government's guidelines to stay at home over the coming months.

With seasonal elements added, Britain is expected to be in the "danger zone" throughout March and April, but that could change in reality.

Experts had initially said the worst of the coronavirus spread would be between late May and late June, with 95 per cent of infections taking place in that timeframe.

If temperatures and humidity in 2020 are similar to that of 2019, the UK climate will work in the virus' favour during spring.

However, the hope is that the heat of summer could slow the virus, as it does with flu.

Will the 'delay' phase work?

Britain is now in the "delay" phase of its response to the virus, which means we are too late to contain Covid-19.

Instead, efforts are being made to slow the spread down and avoid the peak.

Experts are studying the spread of the virus in Italy, and believe we are around two weeks behind.

Following Italy's lead, Mr Johnson announced the closure of schools on March 18.

And on March 23, 2020, the PM told Brits to stay at home.

People should only be leaving home for essential work, to shop for necessities, to exercise once a day, or for health appointments.

These were implemented to slow the spread of coronavirus down.

 

 

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